Happy New Year! The Motley Fool, a multimedia financial-services company, recently interviewed me about The Mobile Wave. Here are a couple of the first segments. More segments will follow.
The Mobile Wave Will Dematerialize Half of the World’s Economy
The Mobile Wave will do what the Internet Wave could not do, obliterate industries. The Internet Wave affected 350 million white collar workers, 15 hours a week. With the Mobile Wave, we are going to see six billion people running software on a smartphone, 150 hours a week, that is 10x easier to use and 10x more powerful than any application on a desktop. Mobile software today is 100x better and 1000x more ubiquitous than web software was a decade ago. The impact of this will be the dematerialization of half of our civilization’s economy into software.
Dim Future for the PC
The market understands smartphone trends but it completely underestimates the tablet. We are headed to a world of six billion people with smartphones augmented by ten to twelve billion tablets. Everybody with a phone will have a smartphone and everybody with a smartphone will have a tablet. We will see four to six billion vocational tablets embedded everywhere, in cars, boats, planes, assembly lines, classrooms, hotels, etc. The PC is 3 to10x more expensive to operate than a tablet. So why not eliminate the Dell computer and give everyone tablets? The Mobile Wave will create some knowledge workers so there may be a place in the market for PCs but the best days are behind it and the future is looking dim.